December 6, 2023
March 20, 2017
The U.S. will face a shortage of between 40,800 to nearly 105,000 physicians by 2030, reports the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC). The organization recently released the results of a new study that found that the numbers of new primary care physicians and other medical specialists are not keeping pace with the demands of a growing patient population, especially the segment that is age 65 and older and getting sicker as they age.
“There is going to be a significant workforce shortage under all of the likely projections,” says Janis M. Orlowski, MD, AAMC chief health care officer, adding that the organization sees the situation worsening as the population ages. The report’s findings are consistent with AAMC estimates from 2015 and 2016.
As in previous reports, AAMC updated scenarios reflecting possibly greater reliance on managed care, retail clinics, and rapid growth in the number of PAs and advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs). Researchers found that while there is a growing body of literature that indicates that PAs and APRNs can provide high-quality care, can increase physician productivity, and, in some specialties, can perform many of the same functions as physicians, there is little information to indicate the extent to which PAs and APRNs might displace demand for physicians.
Other findings include: