Projected Number of People in Clinical Practice as PAs
as of January 1, 2002

Overview

AAPA estimates there will be approximately 42,708 people in clinical practice as PAs at the beginning of 2002 (see Table 1). New York and California are projected to have the largest numbers of practicing PAs, and Mississippi is projected to have the smallest number (see Table 2). The methodology used to estimate the total number of people in clinical practice as PAs and to project their distribution by state is discussed below.

Methodology

The overall estimate of the number of people in clinical practice as PAs was produced by summing estimates produced for the following four groups:

  1. People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2001 and AAPA Fellow Members in 2001 (Fellow Members)
  2. People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2001 but not AAPA Fellow Members in 2001 (Potential Fellow Members)
  3. People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2001 but not AAPA Fellow Members in 2001, were not known to have been certified by the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants or licensed as a PA by a state, and had no valid address information in the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001 (PAs Lost to Contact)
  4. People who graduated or were expected to graduate from a PA program in 2001 (New Graduates).
Our rationale for treating the four groups separately is:

The number of PAs within each group was determined from the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001. The exact counts at that time were 26,118 Fellow Members, 20,209 Potential Fellow Members, 2,931 PAs Lost to Contact, and 4,287 New Graduates. To project the proportion of each group that would be practicing as PAs at the beginning of 2002, we used the following methods.

Fellow Members: This estimate was derived through a direct application of the results of the 2001 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, which found that 91.3 percent of all AAPA Fellow Members in 2001 who graduated prior to 2001 were in clinical practice on a full- or part-time basis.

Potential Fellow Members: This estimate was also generated by applying the results of the 2001 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, which found that 71.3 percent of the PAs who graduated prior to 2001 but were not Fellow Members in 2001 were in clinical practice on a full- or part-time basis.

PAs Lost to Contact: No solid basis exists for estimating the percentage of this group that would be in practice in January 1, 2002 since they cannot be contacted. Moreover, since none of the people in this group were known to have ever been certified by the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants or licensed as a PA by a state, we chose to be conservative and estimated that none of them would be in clinical practice in January 1, 2002.

New Graduates: We estimated the practice status distribution of the people who graduated or were expected to graduate from a PA program in 2001 by using data about the 2000 graduates. We have no information by which to estimate the practice distribution of 2001 graduates directly because those who graduate in the census survey reference year are not invited to participate in the survey.

Our specific procedures for estimating the practice status distribution of new graduates involved calculating a weighted average for three groups:

This average equaled 91.5 percent.

State Allocation: Our projections of the number of PAs in practice in each state as of January 1, 2002 were also produced by summing the separate estimates for Fellow Members, Potential Fellow Members, and New Graduates. For Fellow Members, we simply applied the percentage of each state's Fellow Members who were in clinical practice according to the 2001 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, to the total number of Fellow Members within the state. It should be noted that the total number of Fellow Members within each state was determined from the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001. The Masterfile contains valid work and/or home state information for these PAs. When possible, we associated the PA with his/her work state. When work state was not available, we used home state.

We used the same method to estimate the number of Potential Fellow Members who would be in practice in each state. Specifically, we applied the percentage of each state's Potential Fellow Members who were in clinical practice according to the 2001 AAPA Physician Assistant Census, to the total number of Potential Fellow Members within the state, according to the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001.

To estimate the number of New Graduates in clinical practice in each state, we partitioned the total estimate of New Graduates in practice for the nation according to the state allocation of the PAs who graduated in 2000. Our rationale for not using the New Graduates' own address information was:

Findings

In summing the estimates for the groups, we project there will be 42,708 people practicing clinically as PAs on January 1, 2002 (see Table 1).

The numbers of people that we project will be practicing as PAs in the states on January 1, 2002 vary greatly, ranging from 37 to 5,097. Similarly, the numbers of practicing PAs per capita by state vary greatly, ranging from 13 to 378 per million population (see Table 2). Nevertheless, it is generally true that the states with larger populations have larger numbers of people practicing as PAs and that the per capita rankings of the states have been relatively stable over time.

Conclusions The number of people in clinical practice as PAs, which we estimate will equal 42,708 at the beginning of 2002, is almost certain to grow. According to the AAPA Masterfile, 4,564 PA students are scheduled to graduate in 2002 from more PA programs than ever before.

Table 1. Estimated Number of Practicing PAs as of January 1, 2002

  Count % Practicing # Practicing
AAPA Fellow Members in 2001 26,118 93.4%

(a)

24,383
Potential AAPA Fellow Members 20,209 71.3%

(a)

14,402
PAs Lost to Contact 2,931 0.0%

(b)

0
New  Graduates in 2001 4,287 91.5%

(c)

3,922
Total People Eligible to Practice as PAs 53,454 79.9%   42,708
  1. Percent in practice based on 2001 AAPA Census Survey data.
  2. Percent in practice assumed to be zero.
  3. Percent in practice based on data for those who became eligible to practice as a PA in 2000.

Table 2. Projected Distribution of Practicing PAs by State as of January 1, 2002

State Number of PAs Practicing as of 1/1/2002 (a) State Population   (in 1000's) (b) PAs per million population Per Capita Ranking 2002 Per Capita Ranking 2001 Per Capita Ranking 2000 Per Capita Ranking 1999 Per Capita Ranking 1998
Alabama 254 4,447 57 47 46 46 47 45
Alaska 237 627 378 1 1 1 1 1
Arizona 786 5,131 153 28 28 28 26 27
Arkansas 56 2,673 21 50 50 50 50 50
California 4,108 33,872 121 36 37 36 34 32
Colorado 1,050 4,301 244 11 12 14 10 12
Connecticut 823 3,406 242 12 10 10 11 11
Delaware 96 784 123 35 34 34 38 36
District of Columbia 185 572 323 3 2 5 2 2
Florida 2,322 15,982 145 30 30 30 28 30
Georgia 1,408 8,186 172 25 23 22 17 17
Hawaii 100 1,212 82 43 43 43 42 43
Idaho 254 1,294 196 19 24 26 24 29
Illinois 1,021 12,419 82 44 44 44 44 44
Indiana 312 6,080 51 49 49 49 49 49
Iowa 519 2,926 177 22 22 18 19 22
Kansas 465 2,688 173 24 21 19 20 19
Kentucky 593 4,042 147 29 31 33 37 34
Louisiana 297 4,469 67 45 45 45 45 46
Maine 397 1,275 311 4 5 3 4 3
Maryland 1,225 5,296 231 13 13 12 12 10
Massachusetts 898 6,349 141 31 29 29 32 31
Michigan 1,760 9,938 177 23 25 23 27 26
Minnesota 641 4,919 130 33 36 35 36 39
Mississippi 37 2,845 13 51 51 51 51 51
Missouri 291 5,595 52 48 48 48 46 47
Montana 200 902 221 14 15 17 22 21
Nebraska 507 1,711 296 5 7 7 7 7
Nevada 229 1,998 115 38 35 37 31 35
New Hampshire 221 1,236 179 21 19 24 25 24
New Jersey 560 8,414 67 46 47 47 48 48
New Mexico 367 1,819 202 17 17 15 14 9
New York 5,097 18,976 269 8 8 8 8 8
North Carolina 2,121 8,049 264 9 6 6 6 6
North Dakota 186 642 290 6 4 4 5 5
Ohio 1,200 11,353 106 39 39 39 39 38
Oklahoma 640 3,451 186 20 20 21 21 18
Oregon 407 3,421 119 37 38 38 35 37
Pennsylvania 2,425 12,281 197 18 18 20 23 20
Rhode Island 139 1,048 133 32 32 31 29 28
South Carolina 352 4,012 88 42 42 42 43 42
South Dakota 271 755 359 2 3 2 3 4
Tennessee 523 5,689 92 41 41 41 40 40
Texas 2,678 20,852 128 34 33 32 33 33
Utah 369 2,233 165 26 27 25 18 23
Vermont 130 609 214 15 14 11 16 15
Virginia 724 7,079 102 40 40 40 41 41
Washington 1,248 5,894 212 16 16 16 13 14
West Virginia 491 1,808 272 7 9 9 9 16
Wisconsin 877 5,364 163 27 26 27 30 25
Wyoming 123 494 249 10 11 13 15 13
  1. The total number of PAs in clinical practice includes the sum of the practicing PAs in each state plus another 490 PAs who work/reside outside of the US or in unknown locations.
  2. Estimates of state population in 2000 from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233; Internet release date: April 2, 2001.

 

 

Last Revised: 2/1/02