Projected Number of People in Clinical Practice as PAs
as of January 1, 2003

Overview

AAPA estimates there will be approximately 46,002 people in clinical practice as PAs at the beginning of 2003 (see Table 1). New York and California are projected to have the largest numbers of practicing PAs, and Mississippi is projected to have the smallest number (see Table 2). The methodology used to estimate the total number of people in clinical practice as PAs and to project their distribution by state is discussed below.

Methodology

The overall estimate of the number of people in clinical practice as PAs was produced by summing estimates produced for the following four groups:

  1. People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2002 and AAPA Fellow Members in 2002 (Fellow Members)
  2. People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2002 but not AAPA Fellow Members in 2002 (Potential Fellow Members)
  3. People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2002 but not AAPA Fellow Members in 2002, were not known to have been certified by the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants or licensed as a PA by a state, and had no valid address information in the AAPA Masterfile on October 31, 2002 (PAs Lost to Contact)
  4. People who graduated or were expected to graduate from a PA program in 2002 (New Graduates).

Our rationale for treating the four groups separately is:

The number of PAs within each group was determined from the AAPA Masterfile on October 31, 2002. The exact counts at that time were 27,252 Fellow Members, 23,692 Potential Fellow Members, 2,624 PAs Lost to Contact, and 4,273 New Graduates. To project the proportion of each group that would be practicing as PAs at the beginning of 2003, we used the following methods.

Fellow Members: This estimate was derived through a direct application of the results of the 2002 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, which found that 93.4 percent of all AAPA Fellow Members in 2002 who graduated prior to 2002 were in clinical practice on a full- or part-time basis.

Potential Fellow Members: This estimate was also generated by applying the results of the 2002 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, which found that 70.5 percent of the PAs who graduated prior to 2002 but were not Fellow Members in 2002 were in clinical practice on a full- or part-time basis.

PAs Lost to Contact: No solid basis exists for estimating the percentage of this group that would be in practice in January 1, 2003 since they cannot be contacted. Moreover, since none of the people in this group were known to have ever been certified by the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants or licensed as a PA by a state, we chose to be conservative and estimated that none of them would be in clinical practice in January 1, 2003.

New Graduates: We estimated the practice status distribution of the people who graduated or were expected to graduate from a PA program in 2002 by using data about the 2001 graduates. We have no information by which to estimate the practice distribution of 2002 graduates directly because those who graduate in the census survey reference year are not invited to participate in the survey.

Our specific procedures for estimating the practice status distribution of new graduates involved calculating a weighted average for three groups:

This average equaled 89.7 percent.

State Allocation: Our projections of the number of PAs in practice in each state as of January 1, 2003 were also produced by summing the separate estimates for Fellow Members, Potential Fellow Members, and New Graduates. For Fellow Members, we simply applied the percentage of each state's Fellow Members who were in clinical practice according to the 2002 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, to the total number of Fellow Members within the state. It should be noted that the total number of Fellow Members within each state was determined from the AAPA Masterfile on October 31, 2002. The Masterfile contains valid work and/or home state information for these PAs. When possible, we associated the PA with his/her work state. When work state was not available, we used home state.

We used the same method to estimate the number of Potential Fellow Members who would be in practice in each state. Specifically, we applied the percentage of each state's Potential Fellow Members who were in clinical practice according to the 2002 AAPA Physician Assistant Census, to the total number of Potential Fellow Members within the state, according to the AAPA Masterfile on October 31, 2002.

To estimate the number of New Graduates in clinical practice in each state, we partitioned the total estimate of New Graduates in practice for the nation according to the state allocation of the PAs who graduated in 2001. Our rationale for not using the New Graduates' own address information was:

Findings

In summing the estimates for the groups, we project there will be 46,002 people practicing clinically as PAs on January 1, 2003 (see Table 1).

The numbers of people that we project will be practicing as PAs in each state on January 1, 2003 vary greatly, ranging from 30 to 5,371. Similarly, the numbers of practicing PAs per capita by state vary greatly, ranging from 10 to 453 per million population (see Table 2). Nevertheless, it is generally true that the states with larger populations have larger numbers of people practicing as PAs and that the per capita rankings of the states have been relatively stable over time.

Conclusions

The number of people in clinical practice as PAs, which we estimate will equal 46,002 at the beginning of 2003, is almost certain to grow. According to the AAPA Masterfile, slightly more students are scheduled to graduate in 2003 than in 2002.

Table 1. Estimated Number of Practicing PAs as of January 1, 2003

  Count % Practicing # Practicing
AAPA Fellow Members in 2002 27,252 93.4% (a) 25,459
Potential AAPA Fellow Members 23,692 70.5% (a) 16,710
PAs Lost to Contact 2,624 0.0% (b) 0
New  Graduates in 2002 4,273 89.7%(c) 3,833
Total People Eligible to Practice as PAs 57,748 79.7% 46,002

  1. Percent in practice based on 2002 AAPA Census Survey data.
  2. Percent in practice assumed to be zero.
  3. Percent in practice based on data for those who became eligible to practice as a PA in 2001.

Table 2. Projected Distribution of Practicing PAs by State as of January 1, 2003

State Number of
PAs
Practicing as
of 1/1/2003(a) 		State
Population
(in 1000's)
(b)		 PAs per
million
population 		Per Capita
Ranking
2003 		Per Capita
Ranking
2002 		Per Capita
Ranking
2001 		Per Capita
Ranking
2000 		Per Capita
Ranking
1999
Alabama 242 4,447 55 49 47 46 46 47
Alaska 278 627 443 1 1 1 1 1
Arizona 894 5,131 174 28 28 28 28 26
Arkansas 55 2,673 21 50 50 50 50 50
California 4,561 33,872 135 36 36 37 36 34
Colorado 1,083 4,301 252 12 11 12 14 10
Connecticut 884 3,406 260 11 12 10 10 11
Delaware 125 784 159 29 35 34 34 38
District of Columbia 180 572 314 4 3 2 5 2
Florida 2,548 15,982 159 30 30 30 30 28
Georgia 1,537 8,186 188 24 25 23 22 17
Hawaii 109 1,212 90 44 43 43 43 42
Idaho 275 1,294 213 18 19 24 26 24
Illinois 1,152 12,419 93 43 44 44 44 44
Indiana 382 6,080 63 47 49 49 49 49
Iowa 530 2,926 181 26 22 22 18 19
Kansas 572 2,688 213 19 24 21 19 20
Kentucky 562 4,042 139 34 29 31 33 37
Louisiana 319 4,469 71 46 45 45 45 45
Maine 436 1,275 342 3 4 5 3 4
Maryland 1,300 5,296 245 14 13 13 12 12
Massachusetts 971 6,349 153 31 31 29 29 32
Michigan 1,928 9,938 194 22 23 25 23 27
Minnesota 706 4,919 144 33 33 36 35 36
Mississippi 30 2,845 10 51 51 51 51 51
Missouri 330 5,595 59 48 48 48 48 46
Montana 212 902 235 15 14 15 17 22
Nebraska 537 1,711 314 5 5 7 7 7
Nevada 265 1,998 133 38 38 35 37 31
New Hampshire 255 1,236 207 20 21 19 24 25
New Jersey 654 8,414 78 45 46 47 47 48
New Mexico 363 1,819 200 21 17 17 15 14
New York 5,371 18,976 283 8 8 8 8 8
North Carolina 2,285 8,049 284 7 9 6 6 6
North Dakota 200 642 311 6 6 4 4 5
Ohio 1,348 11,353 119 39 39 39 39 39
Oklahoma 667 3,451 193 23 20 20 21 21
Oregon 461 3,421 135 37 37 38 38 35
Pennsylvania 2,629 12,281 214 17 18 18 20 23
Rhode Island 154 1,048 147 32 32 32 31 29
South Carolina 398 4,012 99 42 42 42 42 43
South Dakota 298 755 394 2 2 3 2 3
Tennessee 580 5,689 102 41 41 41 41 40
Texas 2,827 20,852 136 35 34 33 32 33
Utah 411 2,233 184 25 26 27 25 18
Vermont 151 609 247 13 15 14 11 16
Virginia 771 7,079 109 40 40 40 40 41
Washington 1,347 5,894 228 16 16 16 16 13
West Virginia 511 1,808 282 9 7 9 9 9
Wisconsin 950 5,364 177 27 27 26 27 30
Wyoming 131 494 266 10 10 11 13 15

 

 

Last Revised: 11/7/02